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SBI Research Report
Based on SBI Nowcasting model, the forecasted GDP growth for Q2 FY22 would be around 8.1% (with upward bias).
The model uses the dynamic factor model to estimate the common or representative or latent factor of all the 41 high frequency indicators from Q4 of FY13 to Q2 of FY22.
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Q2 GVA is estimated at 7.1%.
We now believe that FY22 GDP growth rate could be in the range of 9.3% - 9.6%.
The reason for the upward revision is that India recorded only 11% increase in Covid cases during Q3 2021, second lowest among top 15 most affected countries, and the increase in cases has declined to 2.3% in November 2021 over September 2021.
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