Coal India Ltd. is expected to report broadly flat March-quarter revenue and lower profit, with stronger coal realisations and better e-auction premiums partly offsetting softer volumes and continued demand weakness from the power sector.
Bloomberg estimates indicate revenue may remain little changed year-on-year at Rs 3.787 lakh crore, while Ebitda is seen rising 4%. Profit is projected to decline 5% to Rs 9,125 crore. Ebitda margin is expected to improve to 3.22% from 3.11% a year earlier.
The key earnings driver this quarter is expected to be realisation rather than volume growth. Analysts see higher blended selling prices, helped by a stronger e-auction premium over fuel supply agreement prices and a richer sales mix, cushioning the impact of lower dispatches. Investors will watch whether pricing strength can sustain into FY27 if domestic demand remains uneven and global coal prices stay volatile.
Coal India Q4 Preview Highlights (Consolidated, YoY)
- Revenue seen little changed at Rs 3.787 lakh crore versus Rs 3.782 lakh crore
- Ebitda seen 4% higher at Rs 12223 crore versus Rs 11790 crore
- Ebitda margin at 3.22% versus 3.11%
- Profit seel 5% lower at Rs 9,125 crore versus Rs 9,694 crore
Here's what analysts are expecting from Coal India Q4 results
Axis Capital
- Expects Ebitda to rise sharply quarter-on-quarter due to better volumes and higher e-auction realisation.
- Volume seen down 2% year-on-year at 198 million tonnes, though higher sequentially.
- Ebitda per tonne expected to decline year-on-year but improve strongly quarter-on-quarter.
- E-auction premium to fuel supply agreement realisation expected to rise to 70%.
Blended realisation expected to improve to Rs 1,710 per tonne.
Nuvama
- Expects lower volume of 198 million tonnes, down 1.4% year-on-year.
- Blended realisation expected to rise 1.4% year-on-year to Rs 1,726 per tonne.
- Cost of production seen lower by 1% year-on-year.
- Ebitda and Ebitda per tonne expected to rise on better pricing and lower costs.
- Fuel supply agreement realisation expected to increase 1% year-on-year.
- E-auction prices seen lower year-on-year, while e-auction volumes expected to rise sharply quarter-on-quarter.
Macquarie
- Sees downside risks from weaker FY27 volumes, lower-than-expected e-auction realisation and higher contractual costs.
- Sees upside risks from firm global coal prices, stronger domestic demand and higher dividend payout.
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