- The August BofA survey shows investor cash at a low 3.5% and equity allocation at 56% overweight
- 56% of investors expect a no-landing economic growth scenario, with 43% forecasting a boom
- 72% of investors predict no Federal Reserve rate hike before the US midterm elections
The August BofA Global Fund Manager Survey is the third-most bullish reading of investor sentiment since 2022, with cash levels falling to an “uber-low” 3.5% from 3.6% and global equity allocation surging to its highest level since November 2021, at a net 56% overweight.
The survey shows strong conviction around a no-landing scenario for the economy, no Federal Reserve rate hike, no cut in AI capital expenditure and no Democratic midterm sweep.
BofA investment strategists Michael Hartnett, Anya Shelkhine, Myung-Jee Jung and Jessica Guo said positioning continues to suggest that investors should retreat or rotate within risk assets rather than reload.
Growth Expectations Turn More Positive
Growth expectations have strengthened, with a record 56% of investors predicting a “no landing” for economic growth.
Meanwhile, 43% of investors are forecasting a “boom”, the highest number since February 2022.
Expectations for earnings are also firming, with 37% of investors expecting double-digit EPS growth, the highest level since August 2021.
72% See No Fed Hike Before US Midterms
On policy and politics, 72% of investors expect no Federal Reserve rate hike before the US midterms.
At Jackson Hole, 31% expect Warsh to be hawkish, while 7% expect a dovish stance and 53% expect a neutral stance.
On the potential market reaction to a Democratic midterm sweep, 37% of investors expect yields to rise and stocks to fall, while 17% expect yields to fall and stocks to rise.
Another 16% expect yields to fall and stocks to fall, while 9% expect yields to rise and stocks to rise.
AI Bubble Remains Biggest Tail Risk
“Long global semiconductors” remains the most crowded trade, although the proportion has fallen to 53% from 82%.
The AI bubble is the biggest tail risk, cited by 32% of investors, while AI hyperscaler capex is seen as the most likely source of a credit event by 38%.
Despite these concerns, 71% of investors expect no AI capex cut in 2026.
Meanwhile, 58% believe AI will not disrupt the labour market until 2028 at the earliest.
Investors Prefer Stocks, Commodities
Asset allocation remains tilted towards stocks and commodities, with investors long equities—particularly **emerging-market and US stocks, at the highest levels since December 2024—and commodities**, while remaining short bonds.
August has seen a rotation into technology, banks and energy, alongside short-covering in staples and discretionary stocks.
At the same time, investors have rotated out of industrials and healthcare.
Gold is seen as the most undervalued since March 2023.
BofA FMS Contrarian Trades
The survey's contrarian trades include:
- Long bonds / short commodities
- Long staples / short technology
- Long discretionary / short banks
- Long UK stocks / short US stocks
The August survey, meanwhile, points to continued bullish positioning, with cash levels at 3.5% and global equity allocation at a net 56% overweight.
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