Global brokerage Jefferies has highlighted that a marginal increase in Internal Rates of Return (IRRs) could significantly lift the mobilization of Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) - or FCNR-B - deposits for Indian lenders. While current rates hover just below the optimal "attractiveness" threshold, a minor strategic tweak could unlock substantial foreign inflows, said the brokerage in its latest sector note on Indian financials.
A detailed comparison across the banking sector reveals a distinct trend: the divergence among banks is noticeably wider when it comes to headline interest rates than it is for actual IRRs. State Bank of India (SBI) presents a mixed picture in this landscape. Jefferies points out that while the country's largest lender offers a three-year IRR that lags behind its industry peers, it outpaces the competition in the longer term, with its five-year IRR standing higher than the market average.
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The note also sheds light on the distinct strategies employed by foreign banks operating in the space. These institutions are currently offering lower headline FCNR-B rates, but they are utilizing high client leverage to elevate the effective IRR for depositors. However, Jefferies notes a critical prerequisite for this strategy: banks must first secure and raise the necessary funding to support these client-leveraging structures before they can aggressively mobilize new FCNR-B deposits.
The Path to Higher Mobilization
Looking ahead, Jefferies assesses that current FCNR-B rates remain a "tad below" the threshold required to make them universally attractive to non-resident depositors. To bridge this gap and stimulate a robust influx of deposits, the brokerage suggests that banks have two primary levers to pull:
- Rate Hikes: A modest increase of 20 to 30 basis points (bps) across tenures.
- Targeted Adjustments: Offering customized, upward rate adjustments tailored specifically for larger, high-net-worth clients.
By employing these adjustments, Indian banks could effectively boost the appeal of their FCNR-B offerings and drive a renewed cycle of deposit mobilization, according to analysts at Jefferies.
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