- US Treasury yields reached multi-year highs amid strong economic data and rising oil prices
- The 30-year Treasury yield rose above 5.4%, its highest since 2004
- The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to over 5.1%, highest since July 2007
US Treasury yields climbed to multi-year highs on Thursday as stronger-than-expected economic data, rising oil prices and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials fuelled expectations of another interest-rate hike.
The 30-year Treasury yield rose more than 3 basis points to 5.438%, its highest level since 2004. The benchmark 10-year yield climbed to 5.139%, its highest since July 2007, while the two-year yield touched 4.897%, the highest since 2023.
Yields and bond prices move inversely. One basis point is equal to 0.01 percentage point. The Treasury selloff came amid a broader global bond rout. Japan's 10-year government bond yield jumped 8 basis points to 3.055%, its highest since August 1996. Yields on UK Gilts and German Bunds also moved higher, with several European government bonds hitting multi-year highs.
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Investor expectations for further Fed tightening strengthened after S&P Global's purchasing managers' data showed US business activity remained robust. The services PMI rose to 58.7 in September, its highest level in nearly five years, while the manufacturing PMI increased to 56.7, the strongest reading in more than four years.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets were pricing in more than a 75% chance of another Fed rate hike at the October meeting, up from around 49% a week earlier.
Fed Governor Michael Barr said on Wednesday that further policy adjustments would likely be needed to bring inflation back to the central bank's target.
New York Fed President John Williams, speaking in London on Thursday, said it would be reasonable to expect another rate increase before the end of the year.
Deutsche Bank analysts said a strong batch of PMI data, coupled with a rebound in oil prices, was the main driver of the Treasury selloff. The data reinforced expectations of resilient economic growth, potentially giving the Fed more room to keep rates higher to contain inflation.
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Oil prices added to the pressure. Brent crude rose about 2.8% to $105.95 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 2.2% to $94.40.
Markets will now track weekly US jobless claims and August new-home sales for further clues on the strength of the economy and the Fed's policy path.
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