Ukraine War Dominates French Election, That Helps Macron’s Chances

(Bloomberg) -- Emmanuel Macron's outreach to Vladimir Putin didn't help avert a war in Ukraine, but his diplomatic efforts have kept him above the fray as France's presidential election approaches, and that is bolstering his chances.

From Eric Zemmour on the far right to Jean-Luc Melenchon on the far left, rivals are accusing Macron of being naive for ever believing Putin was someone he could reason with. And they're trying to focus the national debate on key issues like climate change, purchase power and crime. Ukraine, though, is what's capturing voters' attention right now.

Here's a run down of what the main candidates have said and done on Russia and how it's going down with voters.

Macron: The diplomatic marathon

The French president, the clear favorite to win in April, invited Putin for talks in Versailles within weeks of taking office in 2017, arguing it was important to keep channels of communication open. He spent the next five years calling for a “new architecture of security” and painted terrorism, not Russia, as Europe's biggest threat.

After the Feb. 24 invasion, Macron's stance hardened. He went from insisting sanctions against Russia could be costly for Europe and trying to allay Putin's security concerns to spearheading the European push for tough penalties and sending weapons to Ukraine.

All the while, Macron's official photographer has been releasing behind-the-scene images of a president hard at work and appearing more accessible than ever before. According to one recent Ifop poll, voters are satisfied with his handling of the crisis.

Le Pen and the Russian connection

The nationalist leader, who has been trying to moderate the views of her anti-immigration party, firmly condemned the Russian invasion.

Yet, Le Pen has said that Crimea, which Russian annexed eight years ago, was never Ukrainian. She has also said she admired Putin, whom she visited in Moscow in 2017. Some members of Le Pen's party stirred controversy this week for handing out pamphlet's featuring pictures of that encounter, which is still on her campaign website.

In 2014, Le Pen's party obtained a 9-million-euro ($9.8 million) loan from a Russian bank to finance her election campaigns. She says that while she doesn't have regrets, Putin has crossed the red line. Polling around 18%, she is likely to face Macron in the second round of the vote.

Pecresse's party links to Moscow

The right-wing, Republican party contender speaks Russian and has said she attended communist camps in the Soviet Union as a teen. She has called Putin an enemy of France and argues that any candidate who ever “defended” Russia should be discredited.

Valerie Pecresse's party came under scrutiny at the start of tensions. But Francois Fillon, who lost to Macron during the 2017 election and is close to many of her campaign members, may have tempered them by resigning from his position on the board of Russian petrochemical group Sibur and state-controlled oil company Zarubezhneft. She is getting 15% in polls.

Zemmour and the ‘French Putin'

The former TV columnist has spoken out against the invasion, but prides himself on being the only candidate who wouldn't accept Ukrainian refugees coming to France. He once said that he was dreaming of a “French Putin,” that he'd welcome a treaty to halt the expansion of NATO, and that Ukraine does not exist as a country.

His support has slightly dropped in latest polls to 14% and his embarrassment is becoming obvious. Last week a France Info host said Zemmour cancelled an appearance because he wanted to avoid questions about his “pro-Putin stance.”

Melenchon's ambiguity

The best performer among left-wing candidates has also radically changed his position. The France Unbowed party leader had initially adopted an ambiguous position on Putin, saying the idea of Ukraine joining NATO presented a threat to Russia. Now he says the war could turn into a “generalized conflict that could threaten humankind.”

On Wednesday, Melenchon was booed by other lawmakers at the National Assembly as he slammed the European decision to send weapons to Ukraine. The Ifop polled showed that Zemmour and Melenchon, who's polling at 11%, are the two candidates whose Russia stances grate the most with voters.

Jadot's push

The green party and France Unbowed are vying to replace the Socialists as the main left-wing party of France. Yannick Jadot has long been critical of Russia, and went after Melenchon for his ambiguous position while demanding transparency from Macron's government on the type of military equipment that will be sent to Ukraine. He's languishing in the polls at 5%.