The southwest monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala within the next two to three days, the India Meteorological Department said in its forecast on Monday. The monsoon season usually begins around June 1.
"Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, the Lakshadweep Islands, and parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu during the next two to three days," the IMD said.
The weather department also said the monsoon could advance into more parts of the southwest, west-central, east-central and northeast Bay of Bengal, as well as the remaining parts of the southeast Bay of Bengal, during the same period.
The IMD had earlier predicted the onset of monsoon over Kerala on May 26. However, the arrival of monsoon was delayed, and the department stated on May 29 that it could happen the following week.
In its revised forecast last week, the department said the season's rainfall would be below normal. It noted that India is expected to receive 90% of its Long Period Average (LPA) this year.
LPA refers to the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval, such as a month or season, averaged over a long period, typically 30 to 50 years. The LPA of seasonal rainfall over India as a whole, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 centimetres. If a monsoon season sees less than 90% of the LPA rainfall, the IMD classifies it as "deficient".
One reason behind the below-normal rainfall this year could be the emergence of El Nino conditions, which lead to less rain during monsoon in India, the IMD said.
Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are transitioning towards El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region, it said.
El Nino conditions are likely to be weak in June, and moderate to strong in September, it added.
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