The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for the country as a whole in July this year, coming on the heels of a weak June that recorded the fifth-lowest rainfall since 1901,.
The weather department said in its monthly outlook released on Tuesday.
Below-Normal Rain For Most Of Country
According to IMD's outlook, monthly average rainfall over India during July is most likely to be below normal, at less than 94% of the long period average (LPA) of 280.4 mm, calculated using data from 1971 to 2020.
"Below-normal rainfall is likely across most parts of the country, except some areas of Northwest and Northeast India, East-Central India and the eastern peninsular region, which may see normal to above-normal rainfall," the department said.
Weakest June Since 2014
The July outlook follows a poor June showers, when the country received just 99.5 mm of rainfall, a shortfall of nearly 40% against the monthly norm, making it the fifth lowest since 1901 and the weakest since 2014.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra attributed the deficit to the absence of low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal. "Usually two-three low pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal (pre-cyclonic bands of moisture) bring rain in June. This time there was none. The El Nino that developed in June has negatively impacted rainfall," Mohapatra said at a press briefing on Tuesday.
He added that the first week of July is likely to see good rainfall, which would benefit sowing.
Above-Normal Temperatures Expected
Moreover, maximum temperatures during July are expected to remain above normal across most of the country, barring a few isolated pockets of west-central India, where normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are likely.
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Minimum temperatures are also expected to stay above normal over most regions, except some isolated pockets of central and northeast India.
Weak El Nino To Strengthen
The department noted that weak El Nino conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are likely to strengthen further during the Southwest Monsoon season, according to forecasts from its Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System and other global climate models.
Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are expected to persist through the season.
Impact On Agriculture, Water Resources Flagged
Below-normal rainfall can pose significant challenges for agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, ecosystem sustainability and drinking water availability, IMD said, adding that such conditions may heighten the risk of heat stress and pressure on available water resources in several regions.
The department called for timely planning, including water conservation and suitable agricultural contingency measures, to help mitigate the impact of rainfall deficits.
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