(Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni is touted as a figure who could bring Italy's mainstream parties together if next month's election produces a hung parliament.
He got a sense of how stiff that task could be on Wednesday when his plans to meet Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin fell through. Europe's pre-eminent leader had stayed up all night to break more than four months of post-election gridlock in Germany.
Although Gentiloni, 63, isn't leading his party's campaign for the March 4 vote, he's emerged as the possible leader of a so-called grand coalition. With polls suggesting no one will win an outright majority, the Italian establishment may look to Gentiloni to form a new administration to keep out the populist Five Star Movement, which is set to be the biggest single group.
Popular Support
The leader of Gentiloni's Democratic Party, Matteo Renzi, has seen his support fall since he stepped down as premier in 2016 and Silvio Berlusconi, another former prime minister, is banned from holding public office since a tax fraud conviction in 2013. Gentiloni on the other hand is rated his country's most popular politician.
“Gentiloni could be the Italian Merkel,” said Sergio Fabbrini, director of the school of government at Luiss University in Rome. “Renzi is the leader of the PD but there's a strong chance it would be Gentiloni to serve as premier again.”
Gentiloni gave a speech at the Humboldt University at 11 a.m. A lunchtime meeting with Merkel was first pushed back to late afternoon and then rescheduled for Feb. 15. Italian officials had cautioned the day's agenda could be “complicated” by Germany's ongoing coalition negotiations.
Merkel and the Social Democratic Party agreed to renew their grand coalition capping four weeks of talks with a marathon 24-hour negotiating session. The program will still have to be ratified by the party's 464,000 members.
Both Renzi and Berlusconi have insisted they'll force a repeat election rather than form a grand coalition if no political force wins a parliamentary majority. But Germany's SPD made the same pledge in September and advisers to the Italian candidates privately acknowledge they could seek to govern together.
European Plans
A soft-spoken former foreign minister, Gentiloni has seen his personal popularity increase since taking office even as support for his party has declined. He's also won the confidence of European Union leaders since Renzi was forced to resign after losing a referendum on constitutional reform in December 2016. French President Emmanuel Macron last month said Gentiloni had been “a joy to work with.”
In Berlin, Gentiloni will be pushing to retain a seat at the table as Merkel and Macron look to overhaul the euro area and the European Union. Macron plans a deeper integration that includes a budget for the euro area and more EU coordination on defense, migration, universities, intelligence-gathering, asylum seekers and tax. Gentiloni's speech is entitled “Italy and Germany together for a stronger Europe.”
“Gentiloni wants to ensure that any Franco-German deal doesn't exclude Italy,” Fabbrini said.
--With assistance from Tony Czuczka Arne Delfs and Kevin Costelloe
To contact the reporter on this story: John Follain in Rome at jfollain2@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alan Crawford at acrawford6@bloomberg.net, Ben Sills, Tony Czuczka
©2018 Bloomberg L.P.
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