Fresh projections by Today's Chanakya for the 2026 Assembly elections indicate a closely fought battle in Kerala, with the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) holding a slender edge over the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), while Assam is projected to witness a decisive victory for the BJP-led alliance.
In Kerala, the UDF is projected to secure 69 seats (±9) in the 140-member Assembly, marginally ahead of the LDF at 64 seats (±9). The BJP-led alliance (BJP+) is expected to remain a minor player with 7 seats (±4), while others may struggle to open their account.
Vote share estimates reinforce the tight race. The UDF is projected to secure 40% (±3%) of the vote, followed closely by the LDF at 38% (±3%). The BJP+ is estimated at 20% (±3%), indicating a notable vote base but limited seat conversion under Kerala's electoral dynamics.
In contrast, Assam presents a one-sided picture. The BJP+ is projected to win a commanding 102 seats (±9) in the 126-member Assembly, consolidating its dominance in the state. The Congress-led alliance (Cong+) trails far behind with 23 seats (±9), while others are likely to remain marginal with 1 seat (±1).
ALSO READ: Exit Polls Breakdown: What Trends Reveal in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala And Puducherry
The projections highlight divergent electoral landscapes: Kerala's bipolar contest remains finely balanced with a slight UDF advantage, whereas Assam continues to favour the BJP-led alliance decisively.
With margins of error still significant, these projections shows trends rather than certainties, setting the stage for closely watched electoral battles in 2026.
Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.
