Gold At $5,400: Goldman Sachs Maintains Year-End Projection, But With Riders

Goldman Sachs has reiterated its bullish outlook for gold, maintaining a projection of $5,400 per troy ounce by the end of 2026, even as it cautioned that near-term risks remain skewed to the downside.

In its report, “Precious Metals: Structurally Bullish Gold, Tactically Cautious,” the brokerage pointed to a combination of strong structural drivers and short-term uncertainties shaping bullion prices over the next 12 to 18 months.

The bank said its base case rests on three key factors, continued central bank diversification, relatively light investor positioning, and expected monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve.

ALSO READ | Gold Price Today: Did MCX Rates Rise Amid Escalating US-Iran Tensions?

Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to deliver 50 basis points of rate cuts, a backdrop that typically supports non-yielding assets like gold.

“We continue to forecast gold prices reaching $5,400 per troy ounce by the end of 2026, as central bank diversification continues and the Fed delivers the 50bp of cuts our economists expect,” Goldman Sachs said.

Central banks are expected to remain the backbone of demand. The brokerage estimates purchases could average 60 tonnes per month in 2026.

Survey data from a Goldman Sachs conference showed around 70% of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise over the next year, while roughly a quarter foresee no change. A separate survey cited by the bank indicated nearly 70% expect prices to remain above $5,000 per ounce.

Goldman Sachs also highlighted that positioning in gold futures markets remains moderate, suggesting room for further inflows without the risk of overcrowding that has capped rallies in the past.

ALSO READ | Gold Price Plunges 1.5% As Fed Keeps Rates Steady, Cites War-Triggered Inflation

However, the firm warned that the near-term outlook is less certain.

“We view near term risks to our gold price forecast as skewed to the downside, as gold remains vulnerable to further liquidation,” it said, flagging potential pressure from broader market corrections or ongoing geopolitical disruptions, including tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.

Over the medium term, the outlook could strengthen further if geopolitical risks accelerate reserve diversification. The brokerage also noted that concerns around fiscal sustainability in Western economies could support demand.

Overall, Goldman Sachs sees a structurally strong gold market, but one that may face bouts of volatility before reaching its projected highs.

Essential Business Intelligence, Continuous LIVE TV, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.