The latest exit poll by Today's Chanakya points to a comfortable lead for the DMK-led alliance in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, but the bigger story may be the impressive debut of Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which appears to have significantly altered the state's political dynamics.
According to the survey (#TodaysChanakyaAnalysis), DMK+ is projected to win around 125 seats, with a margin of error of ±11 seats, well above the halfway mark in the 234-member Assembly.
ALSO READ | Exit Polls 2026: Chanakya Projects Neck-To-Neck Contest In Kerala, BJP Wave In Assam
#TCAnalysis#Election2026
— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) April 30, 2026
Tamil Nadu 2026
Seat Projection
AIADMK+ 45 ± 11 Seats
DMK+ 125 ± 11 Seats
TVK 63 ± 11 Seats
Others 1 ± 1 Seats#TodaysChanakyaAnalysis
Today's Chanakya, a polling agency known for its election forecasts in India and abroad, said that TVK, entering the electoral fray for the first time, is estimated to secure about 63 seats (±11).
The numbers suggest that while the party may not be in contention to form the government, it has quickly positioned itself as a serious challenger and a major disruptor in what has long been a two-party contest.
On the other hand, the AIADMK+ alliance is projected to win 45 seats (±11), indicating it may struggle to keep pace in a race that now looks more triangular than ever.
The Chanakya analysis indicates that DMK+ is likely to retain a decisive edge, even as it acknowledges that TVK's rise has reshaped voter preferences on the ground. It also notes that AIADMK+ appears to be trailing in the current scenario.
Others are expected to play only a marginal role, with projections of about 1 seat (±1).
ALSO READ | TVK 'Surprise' In Tamil Nadu: Is Gen Z Rooting For Vijay To Break The Dravidian Politics Duopoly?
Voting across all 234 constituencies in Tamil Nadu took place on April 23, with an impressive turnout of over 85%, reflecting strong voter participation across the state.
The Assembly has 234 seats, and any party or alliance needs at least 118 to secure a majority and form the government. The results will be declared on May 4, when counting of votes is taken up.
Essential Business Intelligence, Continuous LIVE TV, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.
