Extreme heat linked to this year's 'super El Nino' could threaten more than 450,000 lives globally over the next six months, including nearly 16,000 people in India, according to a recent study. The researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab said on Wednesday that the number of extremely hot days is likely to rise by 44% compared to normal years, according to a Reuters report on the study.
The study estimates that the super El Nino could result in as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide in the six months through February 2027.
The number of excess deaths could rise further if El Nino extends into 2027. Key areas of the Northern Hemisphere, including India and Pakistan, are particularly vulnerable during their summer months, the report said.
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Nigeria is expected to record the highest number of excess heat-related fatalities between September 2026 and February 2027, with an estimated 31,400 deaths, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600.
The Sahel region of Africa, including Niger, Chad, Nigeria and Sudan, is projected to see an additional 66,800 deaths from extreme heat over the six-month period.
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The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia are projected to record a combined 19,400 additional deaths, according to the study.
Climate Impact Lab described this year's El Nino as a "postcard from the future", saying it could offer a glimpse of temperatures that may become normal within the next few decades.
The researchers said emergency response efforts should be directed towards high-priority regions to address heat-related mortality in the coming months.
Notably, El Nino has wreaked havoc across the world this year, with heatwaves hitting Europe and the United States, disrupting monsoon patterns in India, fueling wildfires and triggering floods in several regions. El Nino has been underway since June and is expected to continue into next year.
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