Assam Exit Poll Results 2026: BJP Headed For Landslide Victory, May Cross 100-Mark, Shows Axis May India Survey

The Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is headed for a landslide victory in the 2026 Assam Assembly Elections, with the ruling coalition projected to win between 88 and 100 seats in the 126-seat house, and BJP alone leading the alliance with 70-80 seats, according to an exit poll conducted by Axis My India.

The Congress-led opposition alliance is forecast to win between 24 and 36 seats, somewhere close to 31 seats it won in  2021 polls. 

Seat Share: NDA Dominates, CONG+ Falls Short

According to the Axis My India exit poll,

• The NDA — comprising BJP, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), and Bodoland People's Front (BPF) — is projected to win 88 to 100 seats, up sharply from the 74 seats it collectively won in 2021. Within the alliance, BJP alone is forecast to win 70 to 80 seats, against its 2021 tally of 60. Its allies AGP are projected at 7 to 9 seats and BPF at 9 to 11 seats. 
• The CONG+ alliance — comprising Congress, Raijor Dal,  Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), Communist Party of India- Marxist (CPI(M)), Communist Party of India Marxist–Leninist (CPI(ML)(L)) and All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC) — is projected to win 24 to 36 seats. Congress alone is forecast at 22 to 30 seats against its 2021 tally of 29.
• Others, including All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), United People's Party Liberal (UPPL), Trinamool Congress (TMC), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and smaller parties, are projected to win 0 to 3 seats combined.

Vote Share: NDA At 48%, CONG+ At 38%

• On vote share, the Axis My India survey projects the NDA at 48% — up from 44% in 2021. Within the alliance, BJP alone accounts for 37%, AGP for 7%, and BPF for 4%.
• The CONG+ alliance is projected at 38% overall, with Congress at 31%, AJP at 3%, and Raijor Dal at 3%.
• AIUDF stands at 2%, UPPL at 3%, and Others at 9%.

The margin of error is plus or minus 2%.

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Region-Wise Breakdown: NDA Sweeps Most Zones

The NDA is projected to dominate across most regions.

• In Central Assam — the largest region with 41 seats — NDA is forecast to win 31 to 35 seats against CONG+'s 5 to 9.
• In Upper Assam (35 seats), NDA is projected at 26 to 28 seats against CONG+'s 7 to 9.
• In the Bodoland-BTC region (15 seats), NDA is forecast to sweep 13 to 15 seats. In Hills and Barak Valley (13 seats), NDA leads with 8 to 10 seats.
• Lower Assam (22 seats) is the only region where CONG+ is competitive, projected at 12 to 14 seats against NDA's 8 to 10.

Swing Analysis: Massive Transfers From AIUDF, Others To NDA

The retain-and-shift analysis reveals significant voter movement in NDA's favour.

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• Of NDA's 2021 voters, 74% are projected to stay loyal, while 13% of CONG+ voters from 2021 are estimated to have shifted to NDA.
• Crucially, 13% of AIUDF's 2021 voters and 51% of UPPL's 2021 voters are projected to have swung to NDA — a major factor behind the coalition's surge. Of AIUDF's own 2021 voters, only 20% are projected to have stayed with the party, with 61% moving to CONG+. The survey projects NDA's final vote share at 48% and CONG+'s at 38%.

These are exit poll projections by Axis My India and not election results. Actual results may vary.

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