The counting of votes for the Assam Assembly Election 2026 is currently underway across 52 centres in 35 districts, with the fate of 722 candidates contesting across 126 constituencies being decided.
As per the latest trends, the Himanta Biswa Sarma-led BJP-NDA alliance has surged well past the majority mark, leading in over 100 seats in what is shaping up to be a landslide victory. The Congress-led Asom Sonmilito Morcha, despite fielding its most unified opposition in years, is ahead in only around 22 seats.
Who All Are Leading/ Trailing?
At the top of the pecking order, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is leading comfortably from his Jalukbari constituency by around 6,000 votes over Congress's Bidisha Neog, putting him firmly on course for a third term.
In a major setback for the Congress, state party chief and Lok Sabha Deputy Leader of Opposition Gaurav Gogoi is trailing in Jorhat, where BJP's Hitendra Nath Goswami has opened up a substantial lead of over 4,000 votes.
I was unable to find specific leading/trailing data for each of these individual candidates from live sources — the results are still coming in and constituency-wise breakdowns are not yet available for all seats. I want to be transparent rather than guess. Here is what I can honestly report based on confirmed data:
Among other closely watched contests, BJP's Pradyut Bordoloi (Dispur) has expressed strong confidence in a BJP victory from his constituency, though specific vote counts are yet to be confirmed.
Assembly Speaker Biswajit Daimary (Tamulpur) and AGP's Keshab Mahanta (Kaliabor) and Atul Bora (Bokakhat) — all key NDA faces — are in constituencies where the BJP-led alliance has been broadly dominant in early trends.
On the opposition side, Congress veteran Debabrata Saikia (Nazira) and Ripun Bora (Barchalla) are in tough fights in constituencies where BJP has historically been strong.
Raijor Dal chief Akhil Gogoi, who won Sibsagar dramatically in 2021 by over 11,000 votes, is in a three-cornered contest against BJP's Kushal Dowari and AGP's Prodip Hazarika — a seat being watched closely as a bellwether for Upper Assam.
AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal (Binnakandi) is contesting independently, as his party chose to stay outside the Asom Sonmilito Morcha alliance, making his performance a separate indicator of minority consolidation.
What Exit Polls Predicted?
Assam went to polls on April 9, 2026, recording a historic voter turnout of 85.96 per cent — the highest ever in the state. Exit polls had widely predicted a comfortable victory for the BJP-led alliance, with the India Today-Axis My India poll projecting it to win between 88 and 100 seats, while Congress was placed at 24 to 36 seats. Early trends have broadly reflected those projections, with the BJP-NDA surging well past the majority mark.
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What 2021 Election Results Said?
In the previous 2021 Assembly elections, the BJP-led NDA had won 75 seats out of 126, with the BJP alone bagging 60 seats. The Congress-led Mahajot had managed 50 seats. It was the first time a non-Congress alliance had won back-to-back terms in the state, setting the stage for the high-stakes battle in 2026.
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