Psephologist and political strategist Prashant Kishor sees the National Democratic Alliance returning back to power at the end of the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections, with a better seat share from eastern and southern India. In an exclusive interaction with NDTV Network's Editor-in-Chief Sanjay Pugalia, Kishor said that he saw no major hiccups for the incumbents.
Consistency sometimes could be boring, the political strategist said in a freewheeling conversation and underlined that a party needs 272 seats to form a government in the Centre. Kishor emphasised that the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA is set to win more or less the same number of seats as it did in the previous Lok Sabha election in 2019 and might also go past their previous tally of 303 indivisually.
"What we should see is whether BJP is getting more than 272 seats, rest is just commentary. The 2024 election season started on a very optimistic note. The focus in last few months has been 370 seats for BJP and '400 paar'," he said.
BJP had secured 303 seats in the 2019 general elections, with 353 seats won by the NDA. In 2014, the party had won 282 seats, while its allies took the tally to 336. The saffron party has been eyeing the 400-mark in current Lok Sabha polls.
BJP will see an increase of 15-20 seats in East and South India, along with a rise in voter share, said Kishor. There is no threat to the party in its traditional bastions of North and West India, he added.
Kishor On Market Volatility
Election is the wisdom of crowd, and so are markets, Kishor said. "When they clash, there is volatility."
In the run-up to the election results on June 4, capital markets have seen heightened volatility. Analysts have marked the rise in nation's fear gauge, India VIX, to normal trend seen during elections.
"If you try and second guess the election verdict, you are acting like a day-trader. It is better to look at the election on fundamentals," the poll strategist said.
There is no widespread anger against the Modi government, nor clamour for change or pro-Rahul Gandhi sentiment, Kishor pointed. "Even disappointed voters are asking, 'Who else is there?'," he said.
However, Kishor advised BJP not to undermine public distress in the country. Markets tend to punish underdelivery on higher expectations, he said.
Watch the full conversation here:
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