Market Analyst Rajat Bose does not expect a major rally in the bourses after the budget, unless Finance Minister Arun Jaitley makes some big-ticket announcements. Mr Jaitley will present his maiden budget on July 10.
Nifty faces an uphill task of rising 100-120 points above its all-time highs of 7,700 without major Budget announcements, says Mr Bose. However, if it is a big-bang budget like the one of 1997, the markets could see a big rally, he added.
In 1997, the then Finance Minister P Chidambaram had announced major tax reforms after which the markets rose about 10 per cent in the following 15 days.
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The Nifty has already run up nearly 20 per cent year to date hitting all-time high of 7700 on June 11. Currently, it is trading at 7500 levels.
Mr Bose's advises investors to tread cautiously ahead of a big event like the budget. "In our country at least the budget, it is a big announcement, especially for a new government with so much of expectations," he said.
However, Mr Bose maintains that odds are that even though the markets may not see a big rally it is likely to see some gains ahead of the budget. "I would still be a votary of the probability of markets being higher but at the same time I would be a bit cautious," he said.
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