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Europe's jobs market has stalled since Russia invaded Ukraine, a survey showed, adding to evidence that the war is weighing on the region's economic recovery.
There were fewer help-wanted advertisements on jobs-search website Indeed in the week to April 22 than there would have been had the pre-war growth trend continued. Countries that rely most on Russia for imports and energy-intensive sectors such as manufacturing and transportation were hardest hit.
The research, carried out with Central Bank of Ireland economist Reamonn Lydon and shared exclusively with Bloomberg, underscores the fine line that the European Central Bank and Bank of England are treading as they weigh how fast to tighten monetary policy. While war-fueled inflation is damaging spending power and the recovery, raising interest rates too aggressively could exacerbate that effect.
“These trends are consistent with the hypothesis that the war has weakened the economic outlook via confidence, trade and commodity prices,” said Pawel Adrjan, head of EMEA research at Indeed, which looked at 21 countries. “The silver lining is that postings are still high compared with historical levels, suggesting that the labor market is still relatively strong, possibly helping mitigate the impact of the crisis on employment.”
The effects may spread to other sectors if high inflation continues to impact consumer spending, Indeed warned. It said job postings remain 45% above their pre-pandemic levels.
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