(Bloomberg) -- Mexico's industrial production expanded more than expected in December, suggesting the country's economic data for the fourth quarter may be revised slightly upwards.
Industrial production rose 3% compared to December 2020, above a 2.1% estimate by analysts in a Bloomberg survey, according to data released by the country's statistics institute on Friday. On a monthly basis, the output of Mexican industries grew 1.2% compared to November, also above expectations.
According to preliminary data released last month, gross domestic product in Latin America's second-largest economy had fallen 0.1% in the fourth quarter, which together with a previous contraction during the third quarter put the country in recession. The bump in Friday's industrial production may help improve the final GDP numbers to be released Feb. 25.
“Mexico's overall GDP may have stagnated, rather than contracted, last quarter,” Nikhil Sanghani, a Latin America economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. “There were also upward revisions to the back series.”
Still, the recovery may not be enough to put the Mexican economy out of recession, according to Felipe Hernandez, Latin American analyst at Bloomberg Economics in New York.
“The difference in industrial production pushes the GDP growth number up, but not enough for growth to be positive,” he said. “Mexico would still be in recession, but a very shallow one.”
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