Boiling Oceans, Dire Diseases, Climate Injustice: El Nino's Terrifying Trifecta

Nine months into 2026 and roughly 9,000 or more lives lost so far to earthquakes, heat waves, forest fires, flash floods and much of what is usually classified under 'nature's wrath' or natural, climate-related calamities. 

For those sitting in their living rooms in high-rise, 21-storey buildings, surrounded by concrete... this number may be nothing more than a blip at the moment. However, it is a sword waiting to drop over the necks of communities who have been co-existing with nature for centuries together. 

Besides being a completely natural phenomenon, El Niño is also a catalyst or modifier to drastic climate implications and events. It is expected to supersize and extend well into February 2027, according to a report by the World Meteorological Organization. 

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Sea surface temperatures have already risen over 2 degrees Celsius above normal in July and by mid-August, it had intensified even more in the range of 2.2 degrees Celsius and 2.6 degrees Celsius above average.

"El Niño is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, with big impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat," the report said.

Another factor that is likely going to fuel the little Spanish boy's (El Nino's) fire is the Indian Ocean Dipole. IOD is a climate pattern which de-regularises temperature in the Indian ocean, depending on whether it is positive or negative. A positive IOD is results in warmer than average temperatures in the western Indian Ocean (near Africa), while the eastern Indian Ocean (near Indonesia) becomes cooler than average. 

This is not all though. The report also noted that the strength of an El Niño event alone does not determine how severe its impacts will be in any individual country or region.

Dire Diseases

The World Health Organization outlined that El Nino's impact will be grave where these anomalies coincide with
weak health systems, low population immunity, poor access to care and environmental conditions favourable to disease transmission.

Therefore, countries like India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar and the like will find themselves more vulnerable in the face of diseases. According to the WHO's report, India and most of its neighbours is at a very high risk of diseases like leptospirosis, malaria and dengue.

While at the same time, countries including Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan, are extremely  prone to direct injuries from natural calamities, such as flood, cyclone and landslides, essentially implying that the risk of such disasters happening in these countries is very high. 

Climate anomalies are not a new concept in the age of irreversible climate change. Unusual rainfalls, floods, droughts and tsunamis have become more frequent in the last 50 years, as per the WMO data. 

Does this mean that climate change triggered El Nino? Well... No. Although it does mean that it when in confluence with existing long-term climate change, the situation can become much graver than anticipated. 

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The Skewed Scale Of Climate Justice

The devastating flash floods in Nepal's Trishuli and Lhende Khola river systems pose one of the most crucial questions of the century — who pays the price of enraging nature?  

Interestingly, most of the countries at the perils of climate change and El Nino-related disease are those that contribute basically nothing to it. 

Nepal contributes to roughly 0.08% of the world's carbon emissions, Bangladesh's contribution stands at around 0.43% while Bhutan is the world's first and only country with net negative carbon emissions, which means that it absorbs more carbon dioxide than it emits. 

Nepal's reconstruction bill for the deadly destruction after the August 26 floods amounts up to approximately $5 billion, over 11% of the country's annual gross domestic product, estimated between $45 billion and $49 billion for 2026. 

While many countries extended their hands to pull Nepal out of a flood it wasn't responsible for, the country's plea for more global aid arises from concerns that extreme flooding will become more common as climbing temperatures melt ice caps in the Himalayas.

The scale of climate justice tips in favour of those who live in their ivory towers, high-rise or 21-storey buildings — aloof from the grounds the slides from underneath. But for how long?

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