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A cautionary tale today from Greenland, the only country that's managed to leave the EU.
Uffe Ellemann-Jensen, who handled the negotiations for Greenland's exit in 1985, says there's no way the U.K. can get the job done in the two years set out by Article 50.
“Negotiating Greenland's exit was a fairly simple task,” Ellemann-Jensen, 74, said in an interview. “That took three years. Britain will take much longer. It's impossible to say how long.”
Elleman-Jensen led the talks with Greenland's business minister, Lars-Emil Johansen. He has another lesson for British politicians: Two years into Greenland's exit process, political havoc broke out at home. The exit deal struck by his minority government “was under attack by a broad part of the population who thought we sold ourselves too cheaply on our fishing rights,” Johansen said.
The view from Finland offers more gloom on the process. Finnish Finance Minister Petteri Orpo reckons the biggest risk may be that the other 27 members fail to agree on how to let Britain go.
“That will create uncertainty for the euro area for a long time and pose a bigger risk to the growth of the area and Finland,” he told Bloomberg's Raine Tiessalo.
For more on how businesses are faring under Brexit, check out Bloomberg's business tracker.
Banks' Catch-22
Banks will be hurt by Brexit whatever deal the U.K. strikes with the EU, the Institute for Fiscal Studies says. While the loss of so-called passporting rights would be a blow, the alternative may be the “considerable” costs of accepting rules that the U.K. will no longer be able to influence.
“Outside the EU, single market membership also comes at the cost of accepting future regulations designed in the EU without U.K. input,” said Ian Mitchell, an IFS research associate who helped write the report. “This may be seriously problematic for some parts of the financial services sector.”
The IFS estimates single-market membership could be worth 4 percent of gross domestic product compared with reliance on World Trade Organization terms, Bloomberg's Svenja O'Donnell writes. And Brexit could weaken public finances by as much as 39 billion pounds ($51 billion), according to the research group.
Brexit Bull
As the pound trades around $1.30 after a five-day slump, a lone voice has it climbing back to the pre-Brexit heights of $1.50.
Stephen Jen, CEO of Eurizon SLJ Capital Ltd and a veteran currency strategist, expects the pound to recover as the U.K. thrives outside the EU and London retains its status as a financial center. Still, there will be an initial weak phase, and sterling may take a couple of years to reach that level, Jen told Bloomberg's Chiara Albanese.
On the Markets
The dollar weakened and bonds gained on speculation the Federal Reserve will be slow to raise interest rates amid uneven global growth. Asian stocks held near a one-year high.
And Finally...
London Mayor Sadiq Khan has an idea for Brexit negotiators: delay triggering Article 50 until after French and German elections next year.
Khan says starting the process too soon risks prompting an exodus of jobs, according to Sky News. Other European capitals are trying to lure business leaders from London, says Khan, who accuses the mayor of Milan of trying to “pinch” jobs.
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To contact the author of this story: Emma Ross-Thomas in London at erossthomas@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alyssa McDonald at amcdonald61@bloomberg.net, Pete Norman
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