The price of memory components is expected to rise 50% in the third quarter of 2026, with another 40% hike anticipated in the fourth quarter, according to analysis by Jefferies Equity Research, as cited by reports on Monday.
The cost of DRAM (Dynamic Random-Access Memory, used for standard RAM sticks) and NAND flash (used in SSDs) is expected to go up 40-50% in the third quarter of 2026 in comparison to the previous quarter, as compared to the ongoing quarter. The market is likely to witness an additional surge of 30-40% in the fourth quarter of 2026.
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The price is further expected to increase 40-45% in 2027 on a year-on-year basis. The memory component price point might see respite in 2028 with a projected 15-20% supply growth due to capacity addition contrasted with expected lower demand.
This comes off the heels of an anticipated RAM shortage across the globe, which applies not just to PCs but to smartphones and tablet computers as well. This shortage is due to memory component manufacturers such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron prioritising the manufacture of High-Bandwidth Memory chips for AI data centres, which have 10 times higher margins, making the average consumer's memory needs a lot less of a priority.
With these chips using more silicon than the domestic version, known as the domestic DDR5 PC RAM, manufacturers have reduced their focus on producing them.
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Up to 50% of the total memory chip production capacity has been occupied by long-term contracts inked between chipmaking firms and notable tech companies, reducing the amount of supply available for regular consumers. This is may also likely rise to 70%, reducing the availability of these components for consumer tech such as PCs, laptops, consoles, and smartphones.
The situation may change by 2028 when Chinese firms such as CXMT and YMTC may develop enough inventory to cater to offshore markets as a part of their 'Epic Expansion Initiative', with their current capacity expected to serve primarily domestic needs.
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