Mamata Banerjee has pulled out of UPA government, leaving it in a minority. This means that once Ms Banerjee informs President Pranab Mukherjee formally of her decision and her six ministers resign to the Prime Minister, the President will have to call for vote of confidence in Parliament. The UPA will now be hoping that Mayawati's BSP pulls it through when there is a confidence vote - but it has already laid down its conditions, which are very similar to Ms Banerjee's.
The numbers for the UPA were propped up by its allies who were part of the government as well as those who gave support from outside. These allies - Samajwadi Party (22 MPs), Bahujan Samaj Party (21 MPs), Rashtriya Janata Dal (4 MPs) and Janata Dal (Secular) (3 MPs) - kept the government out of trouble.
They are now critical, since the government to survive will need each and every vote if a vote of confidence is indeed called. Already, the Samajwadi Party has fired a warning shot. Senior leader Ram Gopal Yadav has ruled out joining the government, saying any party joining the Congress at this stage "will be wiped out in 2014 (general elections)". Though this is a reiteration of an earlier stand, party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav recently said that his party had "sown the seeds of a third front" which is non-Congress, non-BJP. He has also not hidden his ambition to become prime minister. At this time, riding high on his son's sweep in Uttar Pradesh and not too much anti-incumbency, Mr Yadav will most likely gain from an early election, if it comes to that.
The Congress will be hoping that Mayawati comes to its rescue with her 21 MPs. At this time, Ms Mayawati is still smarting from her defeat in Uttar Pradesh and she will not want an early poll since she is unlikely to make too many gains. She will also need a kindly-inclined government at the Centre, given the number of corruption cases against her. But it will not be an easy swap for her support. The BSP has already said that it wants a rollback of the reform decisions of the government - the introduction of foreign investment in retail, removal of the cap on cooking gas cylinders and the hike in diesel prices.
Lok Sabha Numbers
Majority mark: 272; total seats 543
UPA + Allies (Mamata, Mulayam, Karunanidhi) = 329 seats
UPA + Allies - Mamata = 310 seats
UPA - Mamata and Mulayam = 288 seats
UPA without the three Ms (Mamata's 19 MPs + Mulayam's 22 MPs + Mayawati's 21 MPs) = 267
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