Domestic equity benchmark NSE Nifty 50 logged a 1.5% jump in an extended week that kickstarted with the Union Budget 2026-27 on Feb. 1.
The high-stakes week also saw the finalisation of the US-India trade deal also, a global tech selloff due to Anthropic's new AI language model, culminating with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s monetary policy committee meeting on Friday.
The NSE benchmark's trading range was the widest since early June 2024, when a weaker-than-expected majority for India's ruling alliance had led to sharp market swings. Going ahead, the Nifty 50's key short-term support is placed around the 25,000-25,200, which marks being the confluence of the 200 days EMA and 80% retracement of the current up move, according to Bajaj Broking.
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Holding above the support area will keep the overall bias positive and will open upside towards 25,850 and 26,100 levels in the coming weeks. Volatility is likely to remain elevated amid uncertain global cues, according to analysts. Attention will shift to upcoming US economic data and commentary from Federal Reserve officials for further cues on the global macro environment and interest-rate trajectory.
With the Q3 earnings season approaching its conclusion, stock-specific movements are likely to remain in focus over the weekend, with results awaited from companies such as BSE, SBI, Grasim and more. ''Overall, markets may remain range-bound in the near term, with stock specific action on the back of earnings outcomes and lingering global uncertainties,'' said Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
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Nifty Bank
Bank Nifty formed a bullish hammer like candle with a small real body and long lower shadow, signaling buying demand at lower levels around the 20 days EMA. According to Bajaj Broking, the banking index has immediate support at 59,500-59,200 levels being the confluence of the 20-day and 50-days EMA. The index holding above the support area will keep the bias positive and will open upside towards 60,700 and 61,200 levels in the coming weeks. The key short-term support is placed in the 58,500-58,000 zone being the confluence of the 100 days EMA and the bullish gap area of Tuesday, as per the brokerage.
Market Recap
The domestic benchmarks ended their best week in three months, as a long-awaited trade deal with the US lifted a key overhang for markets, overpowering the budget-day drop and an ongoing global software selloff caused by fears of AI-led disruption. Nifty 50 rose 0.2% to 25,693.70, while the BSE Sensex added 0.32% to 83,580.40 on Friday. The domestic benchmarks have gained 1.5% in the last six sessions.
On Monday, Trump announced a trade deal with India that slashes tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50% in exchange for the Indian refiners halting Russian oil purchases and lowering trade barriers. Further, Anthropic's new AI tool that automates tasks across legal, sales, marketing and data analysis functions, hit global software and data services stocks during the week.
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This led to the IT index falling 6.4% in its worst showing in four months. On Friday, the RBI kept the key repo rate unchanged as expected while acknowledging that external headwinds have intensified since the December 2025 meeting.
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