Swiggy shares surrendered early gains on Thursday after investors digested the company's ambitious long-term growth plans unveiled at its Capital Markets Day 2026. The stock surged as much as 5.6% intraday to Rs 305.10 after management laid out a roadmap to deliver Rs 10,000 crore in adjusted Ebitda by fiscal 2031, but profit booking erased those gains, with the stock ending 0.43% lower at Rs 288.65.
The sharp reversal has left investors wondering whether the weakness offers a buying opportunity or whether caution is still warranted.
Swiggy expects consolidated Gross Order Value (GOV) to more than triple to around Rs 2.5 lakh crore by fiscal 2031 from Rs 67,734 crore in fiscal 2026, implying a CAGR of over 30%.
Group CEO Sriharsha Majety said the company's confidence stems from operating in three large and rapidly expanding consumer segments, food delivery, quick commerce and out-of-home consumption.
In food delivery, Swiggy expects GOV to grow 2.5-3.5 times by fiscal 2031 while generating around Rs 5,000 crore in adjusted Ebitda. The business reported an 18% year-on-year increase in GOV to Rs 9,490 crore in Q1 FY27, while its adjusted Ebitda run rate rose to Rs 292 crore.
The Dineout business is expected to increase GOV nearly five-fold to Rs 20,000-25,000 crore by fiscal 2031 from Rs 4,600 crore in fiscal 2026, with adjusted Ebitda projected to rise to around Rs 1,000 crore.
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Meanwhile, Instamart remains central to Swiggy's long-term strategy. The quick commerce business reported a 40% year-on-year increase in GOV to Rs 7,907 crore in Q1 FY27 and is targeting more than Rs 1.5 lakh crore in GOV by fiscal 2031. The company also plans to expand its monthly transacting user base to over 40 million while improving profitability through better unit economics, private labels and differentiated offerings.
Swiggy also plans to deepen the use of artificial intelligence across demand forecasting, logistics, partner management and monetisation through proprietary tools, including its in-house analytics platform SAGE.
Should You Buy, Sell Or Hold?
Brokerage sentiment remains firmly positive. According to Bloomberg data, 21 analysts recommend a 'Buy' on the stock, six suggest 'Hold' and three advise 'Sell'. The consensus implies an upside potential of 26.5% from current levels.
The stock's recent performance, however, reflects the volatility associated with new-age technology companies. Swiggy shares have declined 2.45% over the past week but gained 16.22% in the last month. Despite the recent rebound, the stock remains down 26.12% year-to-date and has fallen 26.73% over the past year.
Jefferies believes Swiggy's improving profitability story is becoming increasingly compelling. The brokerage highlighted that the company's food delivery Ebitda has increased five-fold over the past year, demonstrating meaningful operating leverage.
The brokerage expects a similar trajectory to emerge in quick commerce after Instamart achieved contribution margin break-even. If execution remains on track, Jefferies believes Swiggy could evolve into a high-risk, high-reward investment, offering significant upside despite trailing Eternal in market share.
Kranthi Bathini, Director of Equity Strategy at WealthMills Securities, believes Swiggy is best suited for investors with a higher risk appetite.
He said investors looking to capitalise on emerging businesses could consider the stock, given the strong growth opportunity in India's food delivery and quick commerce markets. However, he cautioned that while gaining market share is important, sustainable profitability will ultimately determine long-term value creation.
"Any business creating market share or dominance is important, but profitability is equally important. The key operating numbers will remain critical for investors," Bathini said.
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