Stock Picks Today: SBI, HDFC AMC, Nestle, Hero Moto, Kajaria, Syngene, Concord Biotech, And More On Brokerages' Radar

Brokerages issued fresh views on State Bank of India (SBI), HDFC AMC, Nestle, Hero Moto, Kajaria Syngene, Concord Biotech alongside commentary on real estate, financials, cement sector.

CLSA on SBI

• Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 1275.
• Well placed.
• Loan growth healthy and focused on achieving NIM target.
• Credit demand healthy and RBI clarification on FCNR(B) to aid inflows.
• 3% NIM guidance for FY27 intact and a focus on cost optimisation.
• Asset quality strong as ever, although watchful of El Nino.

Jefferies on HDFC AMC

• Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 3090.
• Not concerned with the May'26 slowdown as it followed 2 months of strong flows and core trends are stable.
• TER change is being passed on to the ecosystem, hence, no margin impact.
• HDFC AMC is expanding its investment team to improve portfolio returns and frontline sales to grow GIFT/AIF/PMS businesses.
• Expect 21% AUM/16% operating profit growth over 2 years.
• Trading at 42x FY27, a 13% discount to peers.

Jefferies on Real Estate

• Industry wide double-digit sales growth in Apr-May, and easing of geopolitical tensions, has led to a late quarter push for approvals by listed companies.
• Major launches by Oberoi, Prestige, GPL, Sobha and DLF are thus skewing late June/early July.
• Depending on how late qtr. launches get booked, we expect 20%+ sales growth by Oberoi, GPL and Sobha.
• See sub 10% for Lodha.
• Large decline for Prestige Estates and DLF YoY given very large base.

Jefferies on Syngene and Concord Biotech

• Recently interacted with Syngene and Concord Biotech management.
• Syngene has identified gaps impacting RFP conversion and has initiated corrective actions.
• FY27 will be a transition year for Syngene due to ongoing destocking impacts.
• Concord's FY26 weakness was driven by US destocking, with restocking in FY27 expected to support recovery.
• Oncology and anti-infectives are expected to be key near-term growth drivers for Concord.

Macquarie on India Consumer

• Rural sentiment at risk from weak monsoons.
• See limited risk to food inflation.
• Monsoon in latter months/ spatial distribution are key to track.
• Past periods suggest that weak monsoons can have a sharp impact on rural incomes.
• 2019 monsoon season is instructive where while onset of monsoon was poor, it picked up in the second half.
• In 2019, monsoon in Jun at only 67% of LPA, while in July 105%, Aug 115% and Sep 152% of LPA.
• Resulting in no limited impact to agri production/ rural incomes.

Macquarie on India Consumer

• Rural sentiment at risk from weak monsoons.
• See limited risk to food inflation.
• Monsoon in latter months/ spatial distribution are key to track.
• Past periods suggest that weak monsoons can have a sharp impact on rural incomes.
• 2019 monsoon season is instructive where while onset of monsoon was poor, it picked up in the second half.
• In 2019, monsoon in Jun at only 67% of LPA, while in July 105%, Aug 115% and Sep 152% of LPA.
• Resulting in no limited impact to agri production/ rural incomes.
• See rural focused plays like Britannia, Dabur at risk from potential hit to monsoons.
• Preferred plays in the consumer space include Titan, Lenskart, Marico and HUL.

​CLSA on Hero Moto

• Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 5728.
• Negatives seems to be well priced in.
• Hardly any correlation of Hero Moto volume vs El Nino as against narrative.
• Positive volume growth, barring covid & regulatory disruptions.
• Track record of delivering >14% EBITDA margin, barring covid years.
• Risk-reward has turned highly favourable.

GS on Kajaria

• Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 1330 from Rs 1170.
• Benefit of brand and diversified manufacturing footprint to continue for sometime.
• First time in last 3 years, Kajaria is operating in a positive environment.
• Volume growth is visible; pricing is moving in its favour; and expect market share to increase.

BofA on Nestle

• Maintain Underperform; Hike TP to Rs 1355 from Rs 1320.
• FY26 Annual Report points to strong, but uneven recovery.
• Parent alignment visible; India execution – a big focus.
• Sustaining growth momentum key; Valuations – very rich.

MS on Financials

• Think the changes to group exposure norms for PSU NBFCs are likely to have manageable impact on PFC and REC.
• These limits would largely apply to large group exposures within private sector exposures.
• Government sector large group exposures could get covered via state guarantees.
• Group exposure limit is now set at 45% of tier-1 capital vs. the 35% proposed in draft norms and the current 50%.
• Breaches, if any, as of the date of the new guidelines shall be permitted to run off till maturity.
• PSU NBFCs can take exposures beyond prescribed limits provided these are fully covered by credit risk transfer instruments.

Jefferies on Financials

• RBI Relaxes Exposure Cap for Upper Layer Infra Financiers.
• Simplifying Upper Layer classification to Rs 1 lakh cr asset threshold & bringing govt owned NBFC-IFCs into the scope.
• Large IFCs/ Power Financiers (in Middle Layer now) can move to upper layer.
• Expect PSU NBFCs- REC, PFC, IRFC & HUDCO to be added while PNB Housing and others may be exited from Upper-layer NBFCs.

JP Morgan on Cement

• Near-term headwinds baked in
• But longer-term supply concerns remain
• Cement underperformed since the onset of Middle East conflict
• Concerns regarding higher costs weighed on the stocks
• Earnings for the coming quarters could be under pressure due to adverse seasonality/higher costs
• See limited risk of further misses to already lowered FY27 consensus estimates
• Over the longer term, however, margins are unlikely to expand materially
• See enough supply additions over the next few years to cap overall industry utilisations.

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