Stock Market Today: The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to see a muted opening on Monday, Sept. 21, following gains in global markets, led by a retreat in crude oil prices and a pullback in US Treasury yields.
The trends on Gift Nifty also signal a negative start for the Indian benchmark indices, Nifty 50 and Sensex, today. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,338.5 level, a discount of nearly 40 points from the Nifty futures' previous close.
Investors are likely to monitor developments over the US-Iran war in the Middle East, as any renewed escalation could quickly reverse the recent decline in crude prices and add to market volatility.
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''The market is likely to remain cautious as geopolitical developments and their impact on crude oil, global bond yields and other global factors, including fresh tariff-related developments, continue to influence near-term direction,'' said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking.
''For traders, volatility is likely to remain elevated around crude oil movements, bond yields and upcoming economic data. Positions should therefore be managed with greater emphasis on risk management, while investors should remain selective until the external environment stabilises,'' added Mishra.
Here are five key factors that may drive the Indian stock market today.
Asian Markets
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed early Monday, amid worries over the ongoing Mideast conflict. South Korea's Kospi added 0.85% at open, while the tech-heavy small-cap index Kosdaq gained 0.43%. Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.49%. Japan's markets are closed for a holiday.
Wall Street
Wall Street closed a volatile week on a muted note on Friday as benchmark US Treasury yields topped 5%, while crude prices reversed earlier gains but remained above $100 per barrel. The S&P 500 ended the session with a nominal weekly loss, while the tech-laden Nasdaq closed higher than last Friday's finish. The blue-chip Dow suffered its biggest weekly percentage decline since March.
Crude Oil Prices
Oil prices stayed volatile as investors eyed a recovery in shipments from Saudi Arabia despite ongoing attacks by Yemeni Houthis that have escalated tension in the Middle East while the US and Iran remain in a stalemate. Brent crude traded around $104 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate remained below $100 after falling for three consecutive sessions.
Middle East Conflict
Iran warned of 'painful strikes' if the US launches fresh attack as it conveyed a set of conditions to Trump administration through Qatari mediators for ending the ongoing war and returning to negotiations. Iran has also demanded the release of its frozen overseas funds, an end to the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the cessation of US attacks on Iranian territory.
US Bond Yields
US Treasury yields moved higher on Friday as investors continued to look for clues on the trajectory of Fed monetary policy. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note climbed back above the 5% level, rising more than five basis points to 5.006%, its highest level since 2007. The combination raised concerns over imported inflation, corporate margins, the rupee and overall growth prospects. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note gained seven basis points at 4.76%.
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