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Nirmal Bang Report
Chemicals sector outperformance over FY19-22 was dominated by buzzwords like ‘Specialty chemicals', ‘contract development and manufacturing organisation', ‘China plus 1', ‘flow chemistry', etc. Over last nine-12 months, ‘Destocking' and ‘China dumping' have taken over as the new ones leading to significant underperformance in earnings and stock prices.
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We have seen the discussion shifting from 'it's all good' to 'it's looking bad' and now to 'it's not all that bad'.
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While marrying the global commentary and guidance by Indian companies, we conclude that times are tough in the near-term; however, players in select pockets can survive and thrive in the long-run.
Unlike in the past, only a few players will trade at premium multiples. Our preference in chemicals is based on factors such as disproportionate focus on incremental capex in value-added segments, higher innovator share, process innovation and high growth sectors.
Maintain structural positive stance on SRF Ltd., Navin Fluorine International Ltd., Fine Organic Industries Ltd., and Neogen Chemicals Ltd.
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