India's imports of Russian crude fell sharply in August from a record a month earlier, but the decline may overstate how much Russian oil has actually left the country's crude mix. Some Russian barrels are becoming harder to trace as shipments with unidentified destinations increase, say analysts.
Russian seaborne crude arrivals fell 26% month-on-month to 2.09 million barrels per day (bpd) in August from 2.83 million bpd in July, according to commodity analytics firm Kpler. Volumes are tracking at about 1.95 million bpd so far in September.
Consequently, Russia's share of India's crude imports fell to 44% in August from 56% in July and about 39% so far in September. Although despite the decline, August imports were still above the 2025 average of 1.75 million bpd.
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Part of the decline reflects lower overall imports. India's total crude intake fell by about 0.34 million bpd in August as refineries underwent maintenance. This suggests that a part of the drop in Russian oil was due to a smaller overall import pool rather than a complete shift away from Russian barrels.
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But the bigger change may be in the visibility of those barrels.
"The barrels did not leave the market. What changed is visibility," according to Naveen Das, senior oil analyst at Kpler.
Russia's total seaborne crude exports remained broadly steady at about 5.5 million bpd in August, compared with 5.6 million bpd in July. But Russian shipments with no declared destination jumped to 800,000 bpd from 300,000 bpd a month ago.
At the same time, India received about 500,000 bpd of crude whose origin could not be identified in August. That has risen to 640,000 bpd so far this month, compared with virtually zero such volumes in 2025.
Factoring in these unattributed barrels significantly narrows the apparent decline in Russian supplies to India, Das said. The share of Russian and potentially Russian barrels in India's crude arrivals fell from about 61% in July to 55% in August and 52% so far in September, Kpler data showed.
This points out that even as fewer Russian barrels are being clearly identified in India's import data - that does not necessarily mean an equivalent volume of Russian crude has disappeared from the global market.
The shift is also coinciding with a recovery in supplies from the Gulf, which had fallen to unusually low levels earlier this year due to war.
Gulf crude arrivals in India plunged to 1.03 million bpd in June, the lowest level in Kpler's data going back to 2017 and well below the 1.95 million bpd recorded during the Covid-19 disruption in April 2020.
Gulf supplies averaged about 2.24 million bpd in 2025 but remained between 1.03 million bpd and 1.34 million bpd from March through August this year.
Iraq saw one of the steepest declines, with supplies falling to just 0.07 million bpd in June from around 0.90 million bpd in 2025.
The trend has since started to reverse. Gulf crude arrivals rose to 1.18 million bpd in August and 1.52 million bpd so far in September. Iraqi supplies have also recovered to 0.33 million bpd, while Kuwait supplied about 0.24 million bpd.
UAE supplies have remained relatively steady at around 0.47-0.64 million bpd, supported by access to Fujairah and the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, which offer alternatives to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Returning Gulf barrels are replacing some Russian cargoes, while an increasing share of shipments with unclear origins makes the true extent of the shift harder to measure.
Das also pointed out that refiners' caution over potential US tariff threat may also be contributing to the change. But this cannot be established from the import data alone.
Industry executives, however, believe that it would be difficult to replace Russian oil in the current market in light of the recent legislation passed by the US Congress.
The US House of Representatives passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 on September 16. The legislation empowers President Donald Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100% on India, China and other buyers of Russian oil.
Indian refiners have been seeking barrels far and wide. However, if India and other buyers were to scramble for replacement barrels at the same time, oil prices could rise sharply. Once the differentials, freight and insurance rates are included, refiners are currently paying $135-140 barrels per day compared with benchmark Brent at $105-109.
"The market is preparing for Dubai crude to potentially reach $140-$150," said Natalia Katona, an Abu Dhabi-based commodity analyst.
The global market has become more fragile in the recent weeks with the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline - a key route for moving barrels to the Red Sea. The 1,200-kilometre pipeline has a capacity of about 5 million barrels a day.
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