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Systematix Research Report
Petronet LNG Ltd.'s Ebitda/profit after tax missed to our estimates by 11%/10% despite forex and inventory gains of Rs 450 million. This was largely due to lower than expected volume and higher other expenses.
While Dahej's utilisation remained lower at 77% versus 79% YoY (69% QoQ), it improved sharply to 97% due to lower spot liquefied natural gas price in April 2023.
Kochi's utilisation remained flattish at 20%. The company processed 172 trillion British thermal unit at Dahej and 13 tbtu at Kochi, down 3% YoY. Calculated margin on spot cargoes dipped to $6.4/million metric British thermal unit on lower spot LNG prices (including $2.6/mmbtu of trading profit) while opex/mmbtu increased to Rs 15.9 versus Rs 11 YoY owing to Rs 350 million of arbitrage award.
Consequently, Ebitda dipped 19% YoY (-49% QoQ) to Rs 9.4 billion versus our estimate of Rs 10.6 billion which translated into net profit de-growth of 18% YoY to Rs 6.1 billion (our estimate: of Rs 6.8 billion).
We keep our estimates largely unchanged and forecast a volume of 837/914 tbtu in FY24/FY25 versus 704 tbtu in FY23.
We expect it's Ebitda/profit after tax to see a compound annual growth rate of 7%/4% during FY23-FY25E.
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