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ICICI Securities Report
We expect Q4 FY23E earnings for the 12 oil and gas companies under our coverage to show strong sequential improvement, with operating earnings (Ebitda) likely to rise 10%/20% YoY/QoQ to Rs 833 billion and net income to be up 2%/26% YoY/QoQ to Rs 438.2 billion.
We expect the bulk of the YoY improvement to be driven by stronger results likely from the upstream companies, while QoQ improvement is more broad-based with improvement seen across sub-segments.
Reliance Industries Ltd. is expected to witness a strong 20% YoY Ebitda jump, helped by robust oil-to-chemical metrics.
For upstream, stronger gas realisations trump weaker oil realisations YoY while gas utilities' earnings (YoY) will likely continue to be impacted by weak demand and lower trading margins (for GAIL India Ltd.).
We expect city gas distributions to have a mixed quarter, with strong improvement seen in Mahanagar Gas Ltd., strong QoQ jump in Indraprastha Gas Ltd., but weak numbers for Gujarat Gas Ltd.
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