Traders placed nearly $430 million worth of bearish oil bets just 15 minutes before US President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, according to a Reuters report.
The latest trades mark the third such instance this month, and the fourth overall, in which unusually large, well-timed bets on falling crude prices surfaced shortly before major developments linked to the Iran conflict.
Between 19:54 hours GMT and 19:56 hours GMT on Tuesday, traders sold 4,260 Brent crude futures lots, worth roughly $430 million at prevailing prices, data from LSEG showed. Trump announced the ceasefire extension at 20:10 GMT.
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The timing has raised eyebrows because the Brent market officially settles at 18:30 GMT, meaning the trades were executed during post-settlement hours, when volumes are typically thin.
The selling pressure had only a limited immediate impact on prices, with Brent slipping marginally to $100.66 a barrel from $100.91. However, following Trump's ceasefire announcement, Brent crude briefly plunged to $96.83 a barrel within a minute. By 12:00 GMT on Wednesday, it had recovered somewhat to trade around $99.20.
Reuters reported that this is not the first time traders appear to have anticipated major policy shifts. On March 23, about 15 minutes before Trump announced a delay to threatened strikes on Iranian power infrastructure, anonymous traders placed roughly $500 million in bets on lower oil prices.
Similarly, on April 7, bearish positions worth around $950 million were built just hours before Trump unveiled a two-week ceasefire.
ALSO READ: Brent Back At $100: Oil Heats Up As Hormuz Blockade Stays
Another major trade took place on April 17, when traders placed nearly $760 million in bearish oil bets around 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister said on social media that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open to commercial shipping.
Combined, the March and April trades linked to these geopolitical developments total around $2.1 billion.
Reuters also reported that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating a series of oil futures trades, including those placed on March 23 and April 7, that occurred shortly before major policy announcements by Trump related to the Iran conflict.
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