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ICICI Securities Report
Capacity cuts in China (steel) fueled expectations of it becoming a net importer of the metal.
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Yet, as data shows, higher spreads continue to incentivize higher production in March 2021.
Global recovery, fiscal stimulus, environmental, social and governance (ESG) driven supply cuts/cost incidence have been fuelling expectations at these sky-high spreads, ignoring the deep cyclicality of the sector.
We do expect demand destruction across regions as prices consolidate at current levels; current signals of possible price control out of China further reinforce our view.
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