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Lupin Q2 Review: Systematix Revises Target Price, Remains Cautious On US Recovery

While the growing complex generics, injectables and biosimilars pipeline provides medium-term growth visibility, Systematix remain cautious on Lupin's near-term US trajectory, given continued competitive intensity in Tolvaptan and Mirabegron.

Lupin Q2 Review: Systematix Revises Target Price, Remains Cautious On US Recovery
Systematix awaits Lupin's better visibility on US business recovery and sustainable margin expansion.
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Lupin Ltd.
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Lupin's revenue grew 14.0% YoY, coming in 2.2% higher than Systematix' estimates and 1.2% above consensus. The outperformance was primarily driven by other developed Markets, which exceeded estimates by 16.2%, supported by strong growth in Europe, partially offset by weakness in Emerging markets. India formulations also outperformed by 2.4%, aided by traction in chronic therapies.

NDTV Profit's special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India's top brokerages, asset managers and research agencies. These reports offer NDTV Profit's subscribers an opportunity to expand their understanding of companies, sectors and the economy.

Systematix Report

Following Lupin Ltd.'s September-quarter results, brokerage firm Systematix has maintained 'Hold' rating on the pharma stock with a revised target price of Rs 2,157 based on 25 times FY28E earnings per share.

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The brokerage expects Lupin to deliver revenue/EBTIDA/PAT growth of 5%/-8%/-18% respectively over FY26-28E.

While the growing complex generics, injectables and biosimilars pipeline provides medium-term growth visibility, Systematix remain cautious on the near-term US trajectory, given continued competitive intensity in Tolvaptan and Mirabegron, potential further pricing pressure and the resultant risk to margins.

Further, elevated research and development investments and operating costs could constrain near-term profitability improvement, Systematix awaits better visibility on US business recovery and sustainable margin expansion.

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Lupin Q2 Results Highlights

  • Lupin's revenue (Rs 77,855mn) grew 14.0% YoY, coming in 2.2% higher than Systematix' estimates and 1.2% above consensus.
  • The outperformance was primarily driven by other developed Markets (Rs 11,823 mn), which exceeded estimates by 16.2%, supported by strong growth in Europe, partially offset by weakness in Emerging markets.
  • India formulations (Rs 23,836 mn) also outperformed by 2.4%, aided by traction in chronic therapies.
  • North America revenue (Rs 30,202 mn) was inline with estimates, while Emerging Markets (Rs. 8,908mn) underperformed by 8.1%, primarily due to competitive pressures in Brazil.
  • US business witnessed challenges from increased competition and loss of exclusivity in Tolvaptan

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

Systematix Lupinj.pdf
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