(Bloomberg) -- Oil flicked between small gains and losses after the dramatic but short-lived rebellion in Russia over the weekend.
West Texas Intermediate traded back above $69 a barrel after earlier slipping 0.7%, while Brent also fluctuated. Calm returned to Moscow following the end of the uprising led by Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin, yet investors are weighing the potential for more turbulence in Russia, a major OPEC+ producer.
“There is very little reaction and not much disruption,” S&P Global Inc. Vice Chairman Daniel Yergin said at a conference in Kuala Lumpur. “The thing that is dominating the oil markets right now is economics, not geopolitics.”
Oil in New York has fallen about 13% this year, in part due to Russia's robust exports but also reflecting monetary tightening in the US and a lackluster economic recovery in China. In Europe, recession alarms are ringing around the bond market, helping damp analyst calls that the second half could be strong.
“The second half of the year is not far now, and so far we have not seen fundamentals tightening,” Yergin said.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. also said the uprising's impact on oil prices may be limited because spot fundamentals haven't changed. Yet RBC Capital Markets said the risk of further civil unrest “must be factored into our oil analysis.”
--With assistance from Yongchang Chin.
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