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ICRA Research Report
The Wholesale Price Inflation expectedly moderated to a 29-month low of 1.3% in March 2023, in YoY terms, from 3.9% in February 2023, amid a deflation in several categories including manufactured non-food products ('core WPI'; down 0.3%).
While global commodity prices have increased sequentially in April 2023, they are ~17% lower on a YoY basis on account of the elevated prices that had prevailed following the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Moreover, a mild sequential appreciation in the U.S. dollar/Indian rupee pair in April 2023 would ease the landed cost of imported goods, relative to the prior month.
While a high base and the downtrend in wholesale prices of most essential commodities in early-April 2023 are likely to soften the YoY food inflation slightly, the possibility of a heatwave in the ongoing month could impart upward pressures on prices of perishables.
We expects the headline WPI index to record a deflation after 32 months and print at down 0.5% in April 2023, on a high base (up 15.4% in April 2022).
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