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ICRA Research Report
The Wholesale Price Index inflation softened mildly to a 24-month low of 4.7% in YoY terms in January 2023 (our expectation: up 4.6%) from 5.0% in December 2022, with a moderation in prices of all sub-groups except primary food and non-food articles.
The core-WPI inflation eased to 2.8% in January 2023 from 3.2% in December 2022, with a dip in the inflation prints for 14 of the 21 sub-groups, having a substantial weight of 40.2% in the WPI basket.
Subsequently, the U.S. dollar/Indian rupee pair has weakened in the ongoing month amid outflows in foreign portfolio investment-equity segment, rebound in crude oil prices as well as the strengthening in DXY, which is likely to push up the landed cost of imported goods in February 2023.
Notwithstanding this, we expect the WPI inflation to ease further to sub-4.0% in February 2023 and sub-3.0% in March 2023, supported by the recent softening in global commodity prices as well as downtrend in the wholesale prices of several food items in the ongoing month.
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