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ICRA Research Report
Contrary to our expectations (+0.6%), the Wholesale Price Index remained in deflationary zone for the sixth consecutive month in September 2023, although the pace of the same narrowed to 0.3% in YoY terms from 0.5% in August 2023.
This was led by a sharp turnaround in the crude petroleum and natural gas print to an inflation, followed by narrower deflationary prints for manufactured non-food items (‘core' WPI), fuel and power, manufactured food products, and primary non-food articles in September 2023, relative to August 2023.
Looking ahead, the YoY deflation in global commodity prices has widened in October 2023 so far, vis-a-vis September 2023, even as the YoY prints for most food items have hardened, relative to the prior month.
We expect the WPI deflation to widen slightly in October 2023, thereby remaining in the deflationary zone for the seventh consecutive month.
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