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Motilal Oswal Report
Real gross domestic product growth for Q3 FY22 came in at 5.4% YoY, in-line with our forecast but lower than the market consensus of up 6% YoY. Our in-house Economic Activity Index for India's real gross value added (EAI-GVA) posted a 2.6% YoY growth in January 2022 (lower than the 4.5% YoY growth in December 2021).
The visible weakness largely emanated from the farm sector – which posted its first decline in 21 months – and the services sector. Industrial activities grew slightly faster than in Dec-21.
EAI-GDP, however, reported a five-month high growth of 5.5% YoY in Jan-22 (versus up 4.0% YoY in Dec-21), primarily led by 51% YoY growth in the central government's core revenue spending (excluding interest payments and subsidies).
Private consumption rose at a seven-month low rate of 3.5% YoY in Jan-22, while investments growth also weakened to 3.3% YoY in Jan-22.
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