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Motilal Oswal Report
Preliminary estimates indicate India's economic activity index for gross value added grew strongly at 9.4% YoY in February 2023 versus 10.1%/3.5% YoY in Jan-23/ Feb-22. The continued strength was broad based with a strong 9.3% growth in industrial activities and the second consecutive double-digit growth in the services sector.
EAI-gross domestic product also rose decently at 7.7% YoY in Feb-23 versus 9.4%/5.4% YoY in Jan-23/Feb-22. The sequential deceleration was led by weak consumption growth, which deteriorated to 7.0% YoY in Feb-23 from 8.7% YoY in the previous month (and similar to 6.7% YoY in Feb-22).
Investments, on the other hand, posted double-digit growth for the fourth consecutive month and were extremely stable at ~11% YoY for the third month in a row.
The slowdown in consumption was largely attributed to weak 2.5% YoY growth in government spending during the month. Private consumption growth was decent at 6.9% YoY in Feb-23 versus 7.3%/4.4% YoY in Jan-23/Feb-22.
Among the few indicators available for March 2023, manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was at a three-month high and auto sales clocked good growth during the month. At the same time, toll collections, freight traffic, railways passenger traffic, and power generation weakened further. In sum, growth appeared to have suffered in March-23 as expected.
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