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Systematix Research Report
We estimate banking system's margins based on some of Reserve Bank of India's published datapoints on outstanding loans weighted average lending rate, marginal cost of funds based lending rate, term deposit cost and money-market rates in Q2 FY23 (July 2022 and August 2022).
We assume stable net delinquency rate, gross non-performing asset and net non-performing asset for these two months, as reported in Q1 FY23, although, there is a high probability that net delinquency rate and NNPA may drift QoQ.
Our Q2 FY23 estimate (July-22 and Aug-22) shows an average margin expansion of 13 bps, versus 9 bps in Q1 FY23.
Empirical study suggests that within private banks, margins of HDFC Bank Ltd. and Axis Bank Ltd. are positively co-related in a rising interest rate scenario, while within public sector banks, the same is true for State Bank of India.
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