As per Reserve Bank of India data, banking system Advances expanded at 0.4% QoQ and 9.6% YoY as of June 13, 2025. RBI's sectoral deployment of bank credit shows a sharp slowdown in industrial segment advances from 7.8% YoY in Mar 2025 to 4.8% in May 2025.
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Systematix Report
Q1 FY26 is expected to be a muted quarter with most banks juggling with many adversely moving aspects such as-
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Slowing advances growth during the quarter,
margin pressure from consecutive Repo Rate cuts,
Seasonally weak quarter for fee income,
annual appraisal-related expenses in the Operating expenses and
sustained elevated credit costs for unsecured credit segments, further driven by agri slippages.
However, we see the tables turning in H2 FY26 on expected
growth momentum in advances, arising from lower interest rates revised MSME definition increasing scope of credit higher tax limits.
Net Interest Margins to see an improving trend as Deposits cost is expected to trend lower with reprising of existing book lower CRR to free up capital for generating yield
normalisation of unsecured segment slippages, resulting in lower credit cost. While there could be nearterm pain, our long-term growth outlook for the banking sector remains positive.
We reinitiate coverage and revise our estimates for the seven banking stocks (HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI, Kotak Mahindra Bank Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank and Federal Bank) under our coverage.
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