Eternal is expected to report stronger March-quarter earnings, with revenue seen rising 11% sequentially as rapid growth at Blinkit and firmer food delivery Margin help offset rising competition in quick commerce.
The quarter is likely to reflect two clear trends: steady improvement in the core food delivery business and continued scale-up at Blinkit. Bloomberg estimates imply margin expansion alongside double-digit sequential revenue growth, suggesting better operating leverage even as the company continues to invest in expansion and pricing.
Eternal Q4 Preview (Consolidated, QoQ)
- Revenue seen 11% higher at Rs 18099 crore versus Rs 16315 crore
- Ebitda seen 17% higher at Rs 431 crore versus Rs 368 crore
- Margin seen at 2.38% versus 2.2%
- Profit seen 23% higher at Rs 126 crore versus Rs 102 crore
Eternal Q4 Preview (Consolidated, YoY)
- Revenue seen 210% higher at Rs 18099 crore versus Rs 5833 crore
- Ebitda seen 499% higher at Rs 431 crore versus Rs 72 crore
- Margin seen at 2.38% versus 1.23%
- Profit seen 223% higher at Rs 126 crore versus Rs 39 crore
The key issue this quarter is whether Blinkit can sustain high growth while protecting profitability as competition intensifies. Analysts will also track whether higher platform fees and better monetisation in food delivery can continue to support Margin, giving Eternal a stronger earnings base beyond its core business.
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Here's what analysts expect from Eternal Q4 results
Kotak Institutional Equities
- Expects healthy Q4 growth led by 17% YoY food delivery NOV growth and 99% YoY Blinkit NOV growth.
- Food delivery NOV seen down 2.4% QoQ, while Blinkit NOV seen up 10% QoQ.
- Food delivery EBITDA margin seen at 5.7% of NOV, up 30 basis points QoQ.
- Blinkit Margin seen broadly flat sequentially as older store leverage is offset by pricing moves.
- Forecasts Blinkit store count at 2,200, implying net addition of 173 stores in the quarter.
- Key focus areas: competition, discounting and Blinkit profitability targets.
Morgan Stanley
- Maintains food delivery revenue estimates.
- Cuts adjusted EBITDA estimates for food delivery by about 1%, citing slower profitability improvement.
- Lowers quick commerce revenue and profitability forecasts amid sustained competition.
- Sees a more gradual earnings ramp-up in quick commerce over FY26-FY28.
- Consolidated EBITDA and EPS estimates reduced following lower quick commerce assumptions.
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Nuvama
- Food delivery NOV seen up 18.1% YoY and down 1.5% QoQ.
- Food delivery adjusted EBITDA margin seen near 5.5% of NOV.
- Blinkit NOV seen up 10% QoQ and 98.7% YoY.
- Blinkit adjusted EBITDA seen at about Rs 11.6 crore.
- Consolidated EBITDA margin seen expanding 40 basis points QoQ.
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