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ICICI Securities Report
Our channel checks suggest industry likely saw strong volume recovery in March 2022 with ~25% month-on-month growth (versus usual ~15%) and high single digit YoY growth despite high base and higher prices.
Average pan-India prices rose 2% month-on-month and 6% YoY and companies have announced further Rs 15-50/bag price hikes across regions in April 2022 to mitigate sharp cost escalations.
As highlighted in our recent note demand seems improving; prices to follow, March 2022 volumes may surprise consensus (versus expectations of 4-5% YoY decline).
Demand recovery in Mar-22 and low base of Q1 FY22 (impacted by second Covid-19 wave) may result in strong 10-15% YoY growth during Q1 FY23E which augurs well for absorption of price hikes, in our view.
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