Groww and Angel One face different growth prospects as India's retail brokerage market expands, according to Macquarie. The brokerage expects Groww's revenue and margins to benefit from expansion into new products, while it sees pressure on Angel One from competition, trading volumes and its transaction business.
Macquarie expects Groww's revenue to grow at a 25% compound annual growth rate between FY26 and FY30, helped by expansion across equities, commodities, margin trading and lending. It expects the company's Ebitda margin to increase from about 19% in FY26 to 35% by FY30.
For Angel One, Macquarie expects client growth to remain below the industry rate and sees further pressure on its transaction market share. It also flagged the company's exposure to float income and the sensitivity of its earnings to trading volumes.
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Groww Growth
Macquarie expects the total addressable market for Groww to expand at a 17%-18% compound annual growth rate between FY26 and FY30, driven by greater participation, new products and higher penetration.
The brokerage forecasts a 25% compound annual growth rate in Groww's revenue over the same period. It expects the company to expand beyond its existing businesses into areas including equities, commodities, margin trading facility and lending.
Macquarie expects Groww's Ebitda margin to rise to 35% by FY30 from about 19% in FY26 as the platform scales.
The brokerage said near-term results could be affected by the closing auction system, which it expects to have a significant impact on derivatives and margin trading facility volumes.
Macquarie said it is “very constructive” on the long-term outlook for the industry, while expecting CAS to affect near-term volumes.
Its Rs 260 target for Groww is based on a 35-times multiple of its FY29 estimated profit, according to the note.
Angel One Pressure
Macquarie expects Angel One's client base to grow at a 9% compound annual growth rate between FY26 and FY30, below its estimate of 17%-18% industry growth.
The brokerage expects further pressure on Angel One's transaction market share after the company's share of NSE active clients flattened at 14.8% in FY26.
The transaction business accounted for 60% of Angel One's FY26 revenue. Macquarie expects continued losses in the business as market share comes under pressure.
The brokerage also expects Angel One to increase marketing spending to defend its market position. It said lower margins than other Indian capital-market players leave the company's profitability more sensitive to changes in trading volumes.
Macquarie expects core profitability to be lower than reported margins. Client account Ebitda accounted for about 34% of FY26 Ebitda, while the implied core-business Ebitda margin was closer to 20%, according to the note.
Its Rs 285 target for Angel One is based on a 15-times multiple of FY29 Ebitda.
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