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Dolat Capital Report
Ambuja Cements Ltd.'s Q3 FY26 performance delivered a mixed set of numbers, with revenue, volumes and realisations coming in above brokerage estimates, while Ebitda, Ebitda per tonne and adjusted profit after tax lagged projected levels.
Dolat Capital projects revenue/Ebitda/APAT compound annual growth rate of 13.6%/23.1%/38.7% over FY25–28E. This growth outlook is backed by expected volume expansion of 17% in FY26E, 12% in FY27E and 11% in FY28E, while realisation growth is seen at 0.4%/0.0%/0.5% respectively.
Post‑Q3 review, the brokerage has cut its FY26E/FY27E/FY28E Ebitda estimates by 13.6%/15.9%/14.5%, reflecting lower‑than‑estimated volumes, softer realisations (except FY26E), and elevated operating costs per tonne. Despite near‑term pressures, Ebitda per tonne is projected to improve from Rs 712/tonne in Q3 FY26 to Rs 962/Rs 1,068/Rs 1,174 in FY26E/FY27E/FY28E.
The brokerage has also adjusted its model to reflect the higher share count after the amalgamation of ACC, Orient Cement and Sanghi Industries into Ambuja Cements. Consequently, no minority interest is considered from FY27E onward.
With the stock correcting ~12% since the Q2 FY26 results, valuations have turned more favourable. Dolat Capital has therefore upgraded the rating to ‘Buy' (from Accumulate) and assigned a revised target price of Rs 617, valuing Ambuja Cements at 15.5x consolidated FY28E Enterprise value/Ebitda and factoring in 50% of FY28E capital work‑in‑progress.
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Ambuja Cements Reports Highest Quarterly Revenue At Rs 10,277 Crore In Q3
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