The Southwest Monsoon is likely to begin withdrawing from parts of West Rajasthan around September 19, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday, signalling the beginning of the seasonal retreat from northwest India.
The normal date for the onset of monsoon withdrawal from northwest India is September 17, making the expected retreat this year slightly later than usual. However, the possible start of the withdrawal does not mean that rainfall will immediately end across the country, as the weather department has forecast rain in several states over the coming days.
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Rain Forecast Before Withdrawal
The IMD has forecast fairly widespread rainfall over Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad from September 15 to September 17. Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab are also expected to receive fairly widespread rainfall over September 16 and September 17.
The IMD has also forecast isolated showers to scatter across West Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh through September 18, East Rajasthan and East Uttar Pradesh through September 20, and Uttarakhand through September 20.
Hindustan Times reported that in the south, isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal until September 20, Kerala and Mahe until September 16, south Karnataka on September 15, and coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana from September 18 to September 20. Central India is expected to see isolated showers over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha until September 20. Fairly widespread rainfall is likely over West Bengal and Sikkim until September 20, Bihar on September 16-17 and Odisha on September 19-20.
Monsoon Rainfall Deficit
The withdrawal forecast comes as the monsoon prepares to exit after a season in which a sharp deficit early in the season was partly offset by widespread July rainfall. The all-India deficit had reached 40% in June before falling to 13% by the end of July. It was 14% at the end of August and stood at 15% as of September 13, Hindustan Times reported.
The deficit has remained despite stronger rainfall in July, after a particularly weak June, with the overall shortfall widening again during August and September, according to IMD's rainfall assessment.
The Southern Peninsular region has recorded the largest regional shortfall, with rainfall around 28% below normal, while East and Northeast India have recorded a 25% deficit. Northwest India has recorded a rainfall deficit of around 10%, while Central India is about 5% below normal.
States Facing Significant Shortfall
Several states have recorded substantially low rainfall during the monsoon season, with Meghalaya facing the largest deficit among the states, highlighted in the IMD data. Meghalaya recorded a rainfall deficit of around 59%, followed by Andhra Pradesh at 43%, Arunachal Pradesh at 42%, Punjab at 40% and Bihar at 35% according to IMD data cited by Hindustan Times. Karnataka recorded a deficit of around 29%, followed by Kerala at 27%, Tamil Nadu at 26%, Rajasthan at 25%, Haryana at 23% and Telangana at 20%.
The rainfall deficit matters particularly because the Southwest Monsoon is critical for India's agricultural cycle.
Rain to Continue Despite Withdrawal
The IMD has stressed that the beginning of withdrawal from West Rajasthan should be viewed as the start of the retreat process of monsoons rather than the end of the monsoon season across India. Several parts of easter, central, and southern India are expected to continue receiving rainfall even as monsoon begins retreating from the northwest. The weather department's forecast therefore indicates that active rainfall will continue across several parts of the country even as the Southwest Monsoon enters its withdrawal process.
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