Rain, not wind, could be the most dangerous hazard from Cyclone Arnab as it approaches Andhra Pradesh, according to private forecaster Backpirch Weather.
It warned of 300 mm or more of rainfall and prolonged tidal surges along the coast.
Slow Approach, Heavy Rain
In a post on X on Tuesday, the forecaster said an interaction between a tropical disturbance to the cyclone's south and a trough to its west would slow its forward speed as it nears Andhra Pradesh.
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The result, it said, could be 300 mm (about a foot) of tropical rain, with hours of downpours that could inundate coastal communities in the state the worst.
Winds May Ease, Flood Risk Rises
The forecaster said the cyclone's winds could fade if it takes a loopy approach to landfall. But it said the higher flooding risk and prolonged tidal surges would outweigh the benefit of weakening.
A model-based map attached to the post shows Visakhapatnam with the highest projected figure, 353.9. Bhubaneswar is at 128.6 and Bhilai at 106.2, while Dhanbad shows 17.1 and Kolkata 11.2. Hyderabad is at 2.5.
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Rain could be the most concerning potential impact from Cyclone Arnab in India. As the storm approaches Andhra Pradesh, a dual interaction between a tropical disturbance to Arnab's south and a trough to the west will slow his forward speed. 300+ mm (~1 foot) of tropical rain could fall as a result, with hours of downpours potentially inundating the coastal communities of AP the worst. Arnab's winds will trickle away if he takes this loopy approach to landfall, but the increased flooding risk and prolonged tidal surges would unfortunately outweigh the benefits of weakening. Water, not wind, will be the most dangerous hazard from this cyclonic storm.
— Backpirch Weather (@BackpirchCrew) October 26, 2026
The map figures appear to be accumulated rainfall in mm. They are a model projection, not an official forecast.
Where Is Cyclone Arnab Now?
According to India Meteorological Department (IMD) updates, the deep depression intensified into Cyclone Arnab on October 26, moving nearly westwards at about 15 km/h.
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It is likely to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of October 28, possibly as a very severe cyclonic storm.
A Familiar Threat
Andhra Pradesh faced a similar storm a year ago. Cyclone Montha crossed the coast on October 28, 2025, and the very heavy rainfall it triggered damaged 43,000 hectares of crops in the state.
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