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The suspense is building ahead of the Group of 20 summit in Japan next week, with many analysts and investors betting that Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will meet on the sidelines and agree to resume the trade talks that broke down last month.
But there's a very real possibility the wagering on a truce may be in vain, and U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross's weekend comments tempered expectations for a deal. Here are three big events that could help shape both the likelihood of a meeting in Osaka on June 28-29 and what might emerge from one:
- Robert Lighthizer, who's riding herd on Trump's China trade talks, appears before the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday. The U.S. trade representative's testimony will mark his first public remarks since talks stalled. Lighthizer is a China hawk, but a pragmatic and camera-shy one. That is why his testimony this week is so important.
- Domestic opposition to Trump's tariffs will be on full display all week. Hundreds of companies and industry groups are set to speak at public hearings in Washington, most of them against Trump's threat to escalate his fight against China by placing tariffs on a $300 billion tranche of goods, including laptops, smartphones and children's clothing. While the hearings are just procedural, they'll highlight the backlash he faces at home just as he is eager to appear strong.
- Vice President Mike Pence gave a speech last year that sounded a lot like a new Cold War with China and quickly became one of the most important on Sino-U.S. relations by an American official in recent years. Next Monday, June 24, he's giving another at the Wilson Center, a talk originally planned for June 4, the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre. There's a risk that an overly hawkish tone just days before the G-20 could cause Beijing to recoil and jeopardize any hope of a substantive leaders' meeting.
Chart the Trade War
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Trump Administration's Latest
Ross Says Deal Can Be Done With China, But Won't Come From G-20
Economic Analysis
- China sees across-the-board slump in investment: Bloomberg Economics
- India trade data signal slowdown in domestic demand: Bloomberg Economics
- Meanwhile, Africa exudes potential for regional trade: Bloomberg Economics
Coming Up
- U.S. public hearings on China tariffs start Monday in Washington
- Lighthizer testifies to Senate committee, 10:15 a.m. ET on Tuesday
- WTO chief Roberto Azevedo holds press briefing in Geneva Thursday
--With assistance from Bryce Baschuk and Michelle Jamrisko.
To contact the reporter on this story: Shawn Donnan in Washington at sdonnan@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Brendan Murray at brmurray@bloomberg.net, Zoe Schneeweiss
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