US Fed Meeting Live Updates: Wall Street Opens Higher Ahead Of Warsh's Rate Decision

"The expectation is that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in October, but the key focus will be on its commentary and the possibility of further tightening in December. Persistent inflation and elevated energy prices could limit the scope for monetary easing," said Thomas Priju, Portfolio Manager, Karma Capital. 

A few key Fed officials used the lead-up to this week’s meeting to push back against expectations for a hike this month. 

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams said in separate speeches roughly a month ago that they believe the central bank has time to assess the economy before considering another rate increase. Fed Governor Christopher Waller later said officials have some flexibility on timing and don’t need to tighten at consecutive policy meetings. 

Warsh has steered clear of giving any hints, standing by his preference not to offer guidance on what officials anticipate for rates. He used an appearance in Bangkok earlier this month to emphasize he isn’t pre-judging the outcome of any meeting. 

Source: Bloomberg

“The Fed is overwhelmingly likely to skip the October meeting, in line with market expectations,” Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research told Bloomberg. But following September reports on consumer and producer prices, she added, “We think Warsh and other FOMC members are increasingly concerned about inflation and remain intent on raising rates further, and will subtly signal that.”

• West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.9% to $101.78 a barrel
• Spot gold fell 0.1% to $4,054.79 an ounce

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.99%
• Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.35%
• Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 5.32%

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
• The euro was little changed at $1.1134
• The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3290
• The Japanese yen was little changed at 157.92 per dollar

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments after the meeting will be closely watched for clues about December. Reuters reported that economists expect at least one dissent in favour of a rate hike, highlighting divisions among policymakers.

With inflation still above target and growth holding up, a pause may offer only temporary relief to borrowers and markets.

The labour market remains relatively stable, with unemployment at 4.2% in September and weekly jobless claims running at low levels. At the same time, wage growth has trailed inflation over the past six months, suggesting that labour costs may not be adding significantly to price pressures.

Financial conditions will also matter. Rising US Treasury yields have tightened borrowing conditions, potentially reducing the need for an immediate rate increase.

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Wall street opened higher on Wednesday ahead of Federal Reserve's rate decision. While Dow rose 0.13%, S&P 500 was up 0.23% and Nasdaq gained 0.31%.

The US economy has continued to demonstrate resilience, supported by consumer spending and rising business investment, particularly in artificial intelligence-related infrastructure.

Government data due after the Fed's decision is expected to show that economic growth accelerated in the third quarter. Strong demand could make it harder for the central bank to justify easing its inflation-fighting stance.

BMO Chief US Economist Scott Anderson told Reuters that he expects two more rate hikes to contain inflation, adding that policymakers may have more work to do.

US equity futures are mixed this morning as traders hold back major bets ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and upcoming mega-cap tech earnings. S&P 500 futures pulled ahead by 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.3%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lagged slightly, down 21 points, or 0.04%, reflecting a cautious market tone across Wall Street.

Inflation remains the central bank's biggest concern. Economists expect the September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, to rise 3.6% year-on-year, compared with 3.4% in August.

While higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict are expected to contribute, price pressures are also spreading to areas such as airfares, rents and computers.

The Fed targets inflation at 2%. A further increase in price pressures could strengthen the case for additional rate hikes, even if policymakers decide to hold rates steady this week.

The press conference will be streamed live on the social media handles of the Federal Reserve on platforms such as X and YouTube.

NDTV Profit will also stream the FOMC press conference on its YouTube channel.

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time (11:30 p.m. IST) today, Wednesday, Oct. 28. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will then hold his post-meeting press conference half an hour later at 2:30 p.m. ET (12:00 a.m. IST on Thursday, Oct. 29) to detail the central bank's policy stance and answer questions from the press.

Persistent price pressures continue to complicate the economic picture. September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.7% annually, while rising energy costs linked to ongoing military conflict with Iran pushed up wholesale prices via the Producer Price Index (PPI). Brent crude surged to a five-month high late last week before easing slightly, leaving markets concerned about sticky energy-driven inflation.

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to wrap up its two-day policy meeting today, Wednesday, Oct. 28, culminating in a high-stakes interest rate decision and a post-meeting press conference by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Markets are widely anticipating a pause, with benchmark rates expected to hold steady in the 3.75%–4.00% range as officials continue to evaluate persistent inflation data.

Financial markets have priced in less than a 10% chance of a rate hike today, according to CME Group data, leaving traders laser-focused on Chair Warsh’s commentary for clues regarding the Fed's next moves later this year.